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Impact of Liquidity on Speculative Pressure in the Exchange Market

Mete Feridun ()
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Mete Feridun: Department of Economics, Loughborough University

Discussion Paper Series from Department of Economics, Loughborough University

Abstract: Economies are susceptible to speculative attacks regardless of whether they use fixed or floating exchange rates. Turkish experience in the last two decades constitutes one of the most prominent examples proving this verdict. It is widely accepted that narrow money (M1) is the most conventional measure of liquidity, excessive growth of which may fuel speculative attacks on the currency. The literature on currency crises clearly lacks a country-specific study that addresses the long-run relationship between this indicator and the speculative pressure in the exchange market. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature using monthly Turkish time series data spanning the period 1984:04- 2006:11. Results of the ADF unit root tests suggest that the series are stationary. Hence, no-cointegration analysis was carried out before the Granger-causality tests. Granger causality tests reveal strong evidence supporting univariate causality running from narrow money (M1) to exchange market pressure. This outcome lends empirical support to the Turkish policy makers’ current efforts to maintain a tight control of the money supply.

Keywords: Speculative attacks; currency crises; domestic credit. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-12, Revised 2006-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cfn, nep-cwa, nep-ifn, nep-mac and nep-mon
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