SOBRE LOS FUNDAMENTALES DEL PRECIO DE LA ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA: EVIDENCIA EMPÍRICA PARA COLOMBIA

Jorge Barrientos Marin () and Mónica Toro Martínez
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Mónica Toro Martínez: Universidad de Antioquia

No 74, Grupo Microeconomía Aplicada from Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía

Abstract: in this paper we are interested in investigating the market fundamentals that influences energy prices formation in Colombia and evaluating the impact of the some market variables on the behavior of energy price by estimating the impulse-response function. To this end we estimate VAR specification. In addition, we carried out an exploratory analysis for forecasting the future energy prices in the next 10 years. Our main conclusion is that the set of variables which most affects the evolution of the energy prices is the hydrology and the declared availability. About the forecasting, we found that the energy prices going to increase for the next years with a kind of fall around 2018 just for recovery ahead.

Keywords: Spot market; electricity prices; VAR; forecasting; impulse response function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 D43 L94 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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Related works:
Working Paper: Sobre los fundamentales del precio de la energía eléctrica: evidencia empírica para Colombia (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lde:grupom:074

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