How does Political Violence Affect Currency Substitution? Evidence from Egypt

David Fielding and Anja Shortland ()

No 02/6, Discussion Papers in Economics from Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester

Abstract: In this paper we estimate a time-series model of the financial asset portfolio shares in Egypt, distinguishing between assets of varying degrees of liquidity and between domestic currency and foreign currency deposits. While financial liberalization and financial stability are found to have encouraged domestic residents to increase the share of their portfolio composed of domestic currency assets, these effects have been offset by an increase in the number of violent political incidents arising from conflict between radical Islamic groups and the Egyptian state. Greater violence has led to lower domestic asset demand and substitution into foreign currency deposits. The link between political events and financial outcomes provides a rationale for economic policy interventions by Bretton Woods institutions in response to increases in political instability.

Keywords: Egypt; Currency Substitution; Asset Demand; Political Violence; Radical Islamism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 F31 O16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-ifn
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