State Dependence and Causal Feedback of Poverty and Fertility in Ethiopia

Arnstein Aassve, Abbi Kedir and Habtu Tadesse Woldegebriel

No 06/7, Discussion Papers in Economics from Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester

Abstract: The paper implements simultaneous random effect models as a means to analyse causality issues related to poverty and fertility in Ethiopia, a country which is plagued by high and persistent poverty and very high fertility rates in rural areas. Using longitudinal data from both urban and rural areas of Ethiopia, we analyse the relationship between childbearing and poverty. In addition to identifying state dependence in poverty and fertility, we investigate to what extent fertility act as a feedback mechanism leading to higher poverty and vice versa. We find that poverty itself has little effect on fertility, whereas there is evidence of state dependence in poverty and important feedback from fertility on future poverty. Not unexpected, we find substantial differences between rural and urban areas.

Date: 2006-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-dev
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: State dependence and causal feedback of poverty and fertility in Ethiopia (2006)
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