An empirical analysis of forest transition and land-use change in developing countries

Julien Wolfersberger, Philippe Delacote and Serge Garcia

No 2015-05, Working Papers - Cahiers du LEF from Laboratoire d'Economie Forestiere, AgroParisTech-INRA

Abstract: Deforestation is a major environmental issue in developing countries, and agricultural land expansion is one of its main causes. The objective of this paper is twofold:(1) to identify the macroeconomic determinants of ending deforestation; and (2) to explain cumulative deforestation and other land uses. To do this, we first study the probability of a turning point for deforestation (i.e., the switch from decreasing to expanding forest areas), based on the Forest Transition (FT) theory. Second, we adapt a land-use model to explain the trade-off between forest and agriculture during development. To take the link between both phenomena into account, we estimate a dynamic panel seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model along with a switching regression model, applied to a dataset of 57 developing countries observed over four time periods. The estimation results reveal that economic development and institutions play a significant role in long-term deforestation. Our results also suggest that after the first development stage, agriculture and forest are not always competing land uses. Thus, these results give us new insights into public policies such as REDD+.

Keywords: Forest Transition; Switching regression model; Dynamic panel SUR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C34 O13 Q23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2015-05, Revised 2015-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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Related works:
Journal Article: An empirical analysis of forest transition and land-use change in developing countries (2015)
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