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Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy: 2020 and Beyond

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Michalis Nikiforos and Gennaro Zezza

Economics Strategic Analysis Archive from Levy Economics Institute

Abstract: This Strategic Analysis examines the US economy's prospects for 2020-23 and the risks that lie ahead. The baseline projection generated by the Levy Institute's stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model shows that, given current fiscal arrangements and the slowdown in the global economy, the pace of the US recovery will slacken somewhat, with a growth rate that will average 1.5 percent over the next several years. The authors then point to three factors that can derail this already weak baseline trajectory: (1) an overvalued stock market; (2) evidence that the corporate sector's balance sheets are more fragile than they have ever been in the postwar period; and (3) risks in the foreign sector stemming from the slowdown of the global economy, an overvalued dollar, and the current administration's erratic trade policy.

Date: 2020-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pke
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