Causal and Consequences of Multiple Dismissals: Evidence from Italian Football League

Kaori Narita, Juan de Dios Tena and Babatunde Buraimo

No 202226, Working Papers from University of Liverpool, Department of Economics

Abstract: Previous research in leadership succession focuses on establishing whether such an event has a positive impact on the subsequent performance of an organisation. However, factors that can affect the effectiveness of leadership change are not well understood. The aim of this study is to identify the causes of first and second within-season head coach dismissals and estimate the impact of the two types of dismissal on field performance using data from the Italian professional football league (Serie A). We employ inverse propensity score weighting together with machine learning techniques in order to mitigate selection bias. Our analysis shows that the determinants of the two decisions are not identical in that the second replacement is likely to be taken with greater caution. Despite this, we find some positive effects of first dismissals on subsequent performance, whilst the second dismissals do not appear to make any difference. These findings suggest that frequent changes in leadership are not favourable options even when a recent replacement has not improved the situation. This could be because the potential benefit of leadership replacement may be counteracted by disruptive effects, or a source of underperformance may lie elsewhere rather than a manager.

Keywords: leadership succession; machine learning; inverse propensity score weighting; football managers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J63 M51 Z22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2022-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big and nep-spo
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https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/schoolof ... ,Football,League.pdf First version, 2022 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:liv:livedp:202226

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