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Risk Management Policies for Dynamic Capacity Control

Matthias Koenig and Joern Meissner
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Matthias Koenig: Department of Management Science, Lancaster University Management School, http://www.meiss.com/en/team/matthias-koenig/

No MRG/0013, Working Papers from Department of Management Science, Lancaster University

Abstract: Consider a dynamic decision making model under risk with a fixed planning horizon, namely the dynamic capacity control model. The model describes a firm, operating in a monopolistic setting and selling a range of products consuming a single resource. Demand for each product is time-dependent and modeled by a random variable. The firm controls the revenue stream by allowing or denying customer requests for product classes. We investigate risk-sensitive policies in this setting, for which risk concerns are important for many non-repetitive events and short-time considerations. Analyzing several numerically risk-averse capacity control policies in terms of standard deviation and conditional-value-at-risk, our results show that only a slight modification of the risk-neutral solution is needed to apply a risk-averse policy. In particular, risk-averse policies which decision rules are functions depending only on the marginal values of the risk-neutral policy perform well. The risk sensitivity of a policy only depends on the current state but it does not matter whether risk-neutral or risk-averse decisions led to the state. From a practical perspective, the advantage is that a decision maker does not need to compute any risk-averse dynamic program. Risk sensitivity can be easily achieved by implementing risk-averse functional decision rules based on a risk-neutral solution.

Keywords: dynamic decisions; capacity control; revenue management; risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2009-04, Revised 2014-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
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