Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables

Gebhard Flaig

Munich Reprints in Economics from University of Munich, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is used to decompose the balances of Ifo Business survey data into the cyclical, the seasonal and the irregular components, as well as the working day effect. The empirical results show that the total cycle consists of three subcycles with about 3,5 and 11 years. Each subcycle of the assessment variable is \"similar\" to the corresponding subcycle of the expectations variable. The seasonal pattern is changing over time and the working day effect is significant for the assessment of the current business situation and for the Ifo Business Climate, but not for the expectation series.

Date: 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published in Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 5 223(2003): pp. 556-570

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lmu:muenar:20379

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