Dynamics of Political Systems

Lukas Buchheim and Robert Ulbricht

Discussion Papers in Economics from University of Munich, Department of Economics

Abstract: We develop a model of regime dynamics that embeds the principal transition scenarios examined by the literature. Political systems are a priori unrestricted and dynamics emerge through the combination and interaction of transition events over time. The model attributes a key role to beliefs held by political outsiders about the vulnerability of regimes, governing the likelihood and outcome of transitions. In equilibrium, transition likelihoods are declining in a regime's maturity,generating episodes of political stability alternating with rapid successions of revolts, counter revolts, and reforms. The stationary distribution of regimes is bimodal. The model dynamics match the data remarkably well.

Keywords: Critical junctures; democratization; invariant distribution; iron law of oligarchy; regime dynamics; revolts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 D78 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-11-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic and nep-pol
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