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Striking Evidence? Demand Persistence for Inter-City Buses from German Railway Strikes

Matthias Beestermöller

Discussion Papers in Economics from University of Munich, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of the largest rail strikes in German history in 2014-2015 on long-distance buses – a newly liberalized market. Using a novel dataset of detailed bus ticket sales and rail cancellations, I find that the primary channel that drives ticket sales during the strike is whether the absolute bus travel time was sufficiently short. In a difference-indifferences framework, I exploit this variation to identify any demand persistence. Although the common trend assumption does not seem to be completely tenable in the given context, my results point to a persistent effect on the ticket sales for inter-city buses on the affected routes.

Keywords: Transportation; Long-Run Demand Effects; Intermodal Substitution; Strike (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L92 R41 C81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-his, nep-tre and nep-ure
Date: 2017-01-10
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