Macroeconomic Analysis Series: BI Board of Governors Meeting, July 2025

Jahen F. Rezki (), Teuku Riefky (), Faradina Alifia Maizar (), Difa Fitriani (), Mervin Goklas Hamonangan (), Hardy Salim () and Alif Ihsan A Fahta ()
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Jahen F. Rezki: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Teuku Riefky: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Alif Ihsan A Fahta: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)

No 202507, LPEM FEBUI BI Board of Governor Meeting Brief from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract: June 2025 saw a modest uptick in inflation to 1.87% (y.o.y), driven by supply-side constraints in key food commodities and continued price pressures in personal care and services, particularly gold jewelry. Despite net foreign outflows from both bond and equity markets, Rupiah appreciated by 0.22% (m.t.m), supported by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures may rise further with the onset of the new academic year, increased holiday spending, and the implementation of higher non-subsidized fuel prices. At the same time, persistent geopolitical tensions and incoming U.S. tariff measures continue to cloud the global outlook. In light of these developments, we are in view that Bank Indonesia should hold BI-Rate steady at 5.50% in the July Board of Governors Meeting to maintain Rupiah stability.

Keywords: gdp; —; economic; —; economic; outlook; —; inflation; —; macroeconomics; —; interest; rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07, Revised 2025-07
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