LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook 2016 Q2

Febrio Kacaribu (), Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja and Faradina Alifia Maizar
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Febrio Kacaribu: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Faradina Alifia Maizar: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)

No 201602, LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract: The main themes for Indonesian economy in the second quarter of 2016 revolve around subdued global growth, struggle to accelerate growth, and challenges for export diversification. As commodities oversupply, particularly for steel, oil, and coal, continued for the first half of this year, we do not expect prices to be high enough to actually help export and growth in the near future. Without any indication for the return to pre-2008, or even pre-2014 commodities prices in the near future, this should put renewed sense of urgency on the part of government to diversify exports and strengthen Indonesia's position in global value chain. The Q1 economic growth has demonstrated that significantly more efforts are needed to achieve government's growth target of 7%. We expect the challenge of growth acceleration will also be highlighted by Q2 economic data that are to be released. We expect modest improvement in overall growth to 5.0%.

Keywords: gdp; —; economic; quarterly; —; economic; outlook; —; inflation; —; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-02, Revised 2016-02
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http://lpem.org/repec/lpe/queouts/IEO201602.pdf First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

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