LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook 2016 Q3

Febrio Kacaribu (), Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja and Faradina Alifia Maizar
Additional contact information
Febrio Kacaribu: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Faradina Alifia Maizar: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)

No 201603, LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract: The overall sentiment in Q3 and going forward is leaning toward cautious optimism across the board. While external environment remains challenging for Indonesian economy as a whole, most of the headwinds in global macroeconomic outlook have been priced in. Several key domestic developments, such as significant improvements in Ease of Doing Business ranking, consistent business-friendly reform packages, successful Tax Amnesty program, and more realistic 2017 budget, have improved business confidence. Furthermore, global tail risks, such as risk from US election and drastic oil supply cut, have subsided considerably. We expect Q3 GDP growth to be at 5.0% level. We also expect FY2016 GDP to grow at 5.1-5.2% level and FY2017 to grow at 5.2-5.4% level, reflecting the slight pick-up of growth amidst challenging environment. We expect output from government spending in Q3 and Q4 2016 to stagnate, due to combination of significant budget cut in August and stagnant nominal spending realization in Q3 2016 compared to Q3 2015.

Keywords: gdp; —; economic; quarterly; —; economic; outlook; —; inflation; —; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-03, Revised 2016-03
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://lpem.org/repec/lpe/queouts/IEO201603.pdf First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lpe:queout:201603

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bintoro Seto ().