LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook 2016 Q4

Febrio Kacaribu (), Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja and Faradina Alifia Maizar
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Febrio Kacaribu: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Faradina Alifia Maizar: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)

No 201604, LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract: Still consistent with our previous outlook, we expect 2016 GDP to grow at around 5.1% level, higher than the preceding year. This is attributable to more robust consumption growth amid low inflation. However, this growth is most probably lower than the potential amid stagnating government spending in 2016 due to two budget cuts in the second semester of 2016 and less-thantarget tax revenue. We still expect investments to grow slower than the economy in Q4 2016, mainly caused by highdegree of global uncertainty. China's slow economic growth, surprising Brexit, and Donald Trump's unexpected win in the 2016 US presidential election may cause investors to delay any investment decision. Apart from external factors, increasing religious and ethnic-related tensions may put business to hold capital expenditures.

Keywords: gdp; —; economic; quarterly; —; economic; outlook; —; inflation; —; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-04, Revised 2016-04
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http://lpem.org/repec/lpe/queouts/IEO201604.pdf First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

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