LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook 2019 Q1

Febrio Kacaribu (febrio.kacaribu@lpem-febui.org), Nauli A. Desdiani, Syahda Sabrina and Nisrina Qurratu'Ain
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Febrio Kacaribu: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Nauli A. Desdiani: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Syahda Sabrina: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)

No 201901, LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract: Following previous expectation, we see that the economy in Q1 2019 will be slightly improved. A series of unexpected trends since November, such as the reversal of capital flow to emerging markets, lower crude oil prices, and negotiations between US and China, has brought positive sentiment to the domestic market. The effect of the influx of foreign portfolio investment in the last three months has improved Rupiah to be among the most improved currencies together with the currencies of Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia, with Rupiah in these past two months trading at around Rp14,000 per US dollar. The trend of declining crude oil price in the next two quarters due to overflow in oil production may give more breathing space for the government; it is likely to improve the trade balance and also reduce pressure on the government’s challenging decision to hold fuel price at the same level until the general election.

Keywords: gdp; —; economic; quarterly; —; economic; outlook; —; inflation; —; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01, Revised 2019-01
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