Specific Markov-switching behaviour for ARMA parameters

Jean-François Carpantier

DEM Discussion Paper Series from Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg

Abstract: We propose an estimation method that circumvents the path dependence problem existing in Change-Point (CP) and Markov Switching (MS) ARMA models. Our model embeds a sticky infinite hidden Markov-switching structure (sticky IHMM), which makes possible a self-determination of the number of regimes as well as of the specification : CP or MS. Furthermore, CP and MS frameworks usually assume that all the model parameters vary from one regime to another. We relax this restrictive assumption. As illustrated by simulations on moderate samples (300 observations), the sticky IHMM-ARMA algorithm detects which model parameters change over time. Applications to the U.S. GDP growth and the DJIA realized volatility highlight the relevance of estimating different structural breaks for the mean and variance parameters.

Keywords: Bayesian interference; Markov-switching model; ARMA model; infinite hidden Markov model; Dirichlet Process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C15 C22 C58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Specific Markov-switching behaviour for ARMA parameters (2014)
Working Paper: Specific Markov-switching behaviour for ARMA parameters (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:luc:wpaper:14-07

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