“From fields to frontiers” - Cash crop price shocks and migration intentions in rural Africa

Luisito Bertinelli (), Arrnaud Bourgain () and Elisabeth Kempter ()
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Luisito Bertinelli: DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU
Arrnaud Bourgain: DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU
Elisabeth Kempter: DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU

DEM Discussion Paper Series from Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg

Abstract: How do cash crop price shocks shape migration intentions in rural, agriculturally intensive regions of sub- Saharan Africa? Focusing on communities heavily reliant on cash crop income, we examine migration intentions following negative cash crop price shocks. Using a difference-in-differences approach with continuous treatment, we analyze data from 278,898 rural individuals across 432 regions in 41 sub- Saharan African countries. The results indicate that a negative cash crop price shock increases the likelihood of international migration intentions, an effect that is particularly pronounced in regions with higher cropland intensity. These findings are confirmed by several additional analyses and contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between agricultural livelihood instability and migration intentions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: migration; cash crops; agriculture; economic and price shocks; sub-Saharan Africa. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 F22 Q10 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev and nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-03

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