Is the Word of a Gentleman as Good as His Tweet? Policy communications of the Bank of England

Michael Lamla and Dmitri V. Vinogradov
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Dmitri V. Vinogradov: University of Glasgow and National Research University Higher School of Economics

No 403, Working Paper Series in Economics from University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics

Abstract: Policy announcements by central banks affect financial markets, but their effect on consumer beliefs is limited. This paper studies the implications of using different communication channels: established media outlets versus social media. Information on the news sources comes from our original consumer surveys administered just before and right after policy announcement events, enabling a causal inference on the announce- ment effect. We focus on the Bank of England, the first central bank to actively adopt accessible language, simplified messages and new forms of communication via its Twitter account. Based on about 10 000 individual consumer responses in 2018-2019, overall we find no statistically significant effect of announcements on perceptions or expectations, yet respondents who receive news have better perceptions and expectations than those who don't. Policy announcement events trigger an increase in the share of consumers who receive monetary policy news, the share of informed consumers is higher among Twitter users, suggesting potential benefits from Twitter communication with the public. However, Twitter users tend to overestimate inflation and interest rates, make a greater expectations/perception error. In addition they report higher confidence in their estimates. In terms of expectations quality, spreading the word of the Central bank via conventional mass media appears to be more effective than tweets.

Keywords: perceptions; expectations; central bank communication; consumer; Twitter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2021-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac, nep-mkt, nep-mon and nep-pay
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Working Paper: Is the Word of a Gentleman as Good as His Tweet? Policy Communications of the Bank of England (2022)
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