ISBEM: An econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures

Giuseppe Bianchi (), Tatiana Cesaroni and Ottavio Ricchi ()

No 15120, Working Papers LuissLab from Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli

Abstract: In this paper we describe a pilot econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures (ISBEM). In search for leading indicators, we consider a newly available data set of the Italian State Budget financial microdata at monthly frequency that we use to estimate and forecast annual budget data. Early work on the issue is encompassed with the provision of a dynamic multiple equations model for the budget cycle linking data coming various budget phases (i.e. appropriations, expenditures commitments and payments) and disaggregated by budget macro aggregates. The model, that consists of several “pseudo” behavioral equations and identities, can be used for simulation exercises as well as forecasting purposes.

Keywords: Fiscal forecasting; budget state expenditures; intra annual cash data; econometric models. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E62 H50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lui:lleewp:15120

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