Optimal Credible Warnings

Koffi Akakpo, Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher

Cahiers de recherche CREATE from CREATE

Abstract: We examine the impact of rainfall variability and cyclones on schooling and work among a cohort of teens and young adults by estimating a bivariate probit model, using a panel survey conducted in 2004 and 2011 in MadagascarÑa poor island nation that is frequently affected by extreme weather events. Our results show that negative rainfall deviations and cyclones reduce the current and lagged probability of attending school and encourage young men and, to a greater extent, women to enter the work force. Less wealthy households are most likely to experience this school-to-work transition in the face of rainfall shocks. The finding is consistent with poorer households having less savings and more limited access to credit and insurance, whichreduces their ability to cope with negative weather shocks.

Keywords: Flood warnings; Renewable resource management; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 D81 Q28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
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Working Paper: Optimal Credible Warnings (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lvl:creacr:2018-03

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