On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests

Jean-Daniel Saphores, Lynda Khalaf and Denis Pelletier

Cahiers de recherche from GREEN

Abstract: Models use for natural resources prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from discrete, unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and ARCH effects, we propose to use bounds and bootstrap test techniques, thus solving the unidentified nuisance parameter problem. We apply this approach to stumpage price time series from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. Using real options, we then develop a stopping model to assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.

Keywords: Jum Processes; ARCH; Bootstrap; Stumpage Prices; Real Options (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C52 G12 Q23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests (2000)
Working Paper: On Jumps and Arch Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests (2000)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lvl:lagrcr:0003

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