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Uncertainties in the Mongolian Economy in the Near Future

Ragchaasuren Galindev, Delgermaa Begz, Tsolmon Baatarzorig, Unurjargal Davaa, Nyambaatar Batbayar and Oyunzul Tserendorj

Working Papers MPIA from PEP-MPIA

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of three shocks (a commodity-price drop, fiscal expansion, and the termination of the biggest mine development) looming in Mongolia’s near future. We modified the PEP-1-t model and calibrated it to the IMF’s recent projections in a business-as-usual scenario. The alternative scenarios for the Mongolian economy, considering these shocks, suggest that the impacts may be significant.

Keywords: CGE model; Mongolian economy; Commodity price; Fiscal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 E62 I32 Q33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-mac
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2019-26