STOCK RETURNS-INFLATION RELATION IN INDIA

K.R. Shanmugam and Biswa Misra

Working Papers from Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India

Abstract: This study contributes to the stock returns-inflation relation literature in developing countries by revisiting the issue with reference to the emerging economy, India. More specifically, it tests whether the Indian stock market provides an effective hedge against inflation using monthly data on real stock return, inflation and real activity from April 1980 to March 2004 and a two-step estimation procedure. Results of the study indicate that (i) the Indian stock market reflects future real activity; (ii) the negative stock returns-inflation relation emerges from the unexpected component of the inflation and (iii) this negative relation vanishes when we control for the inflation-real activity relation, thereby providing a strong support for Fama’s proxy effect hypothesis. The split sample analyses indicate that the Fama hypothesis is valid only in pre reform period. In the post reform period, real stock returns have been independent of inflation, i.e., the Fisher Hypothesis is valid.

Keywords: Stock Return; Inflation; Fama’s proxy effect hypothesis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2008-10
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Stock Returns-Inflation Relation in India (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mad:wpaper:2008-038

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