Deflecting Economic Sanctions: Do Trade and Political Alliances Matter?

Devasmita Jena (), C. Akash and Prachi Gupta
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Devasmita Jena: Corresponding Author, Madras School of Economics (MSE), Chennai
C. Akash: MSE
Prachi Gupta: Temple University, Tokyo, Japan

Working Papers from Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India

Abstract: Success of economic sanctions hinges on their impact on sanctioned countries’ trade. This, in turn, depends on the sanctioned country’s opportunity to divert trade to a third-party (country, not involved in sanctions). History is witness to third-parties facilitating trade diversion, thus busting sanction. Nonetheless, literature does not present conclusive evidence on trade diversion or on motivation for busting sanctions. Therefore, in this paper, we address the following. What bearing sanctions have on bilateral trade flows and trade diversion? Is diversion dependent on the political and trade alliance the third-party shares with the sanctioned and/or the sanctioning countries? We estimate a structural gravity model for globally representative country-dyads, during 1990-2019, using, inter-alia the Global Sanctions Database. We find that sanctions depress bilateral trade between sanctioned and sanctioning nations and cause trade diversion via third-party. The existence of trade alliance between third-party and country involved in sanction has additional impact on trade diversion. Furthermore, a political alliance between third-party and sanctioned country heightens trade between them. However, political alliance between third-party and sanctioning country doesn’t explain trade between them. Our results have insight for India’s evolving trade relations with Russia, since 2022, as Russia reels under Western sanctions.

Keywords: Sanction; GSDB; Trade Agreement; Political Alliance; Structural Gravity Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F14 F51 N4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2023-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-his, nep-int, nep-pol and nep-tra
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