Defuzzification in Scenario Management – A theoretical and practical Guide

Thomas Spengler and Sebastian Herzog
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Thomas Spengler: Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg
Sebastian Herzog: Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg

No 23005, FEMM Working Papers from Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management

Abstract: It is virtually a truism that companies should respond to situations of high complexity, dynamics and contingency with strategic management measures. Not least in turbulent VUCA-type environments, the company is well advised to use alternative scenarios for environmental forecasting. The so-called scenario technique is used for this purpose. Human modes of thought, judgment and action are often ambiguous and rarely univocal. Here, so-called expert (control) systems based on fuzzy control offer valuable help. Their core is rule inference resulting in fuzzy rule output. In many cases, however, managers are interested in receiving concrete recommendations for action that are as unambiguous as possible. To do so, they need to defuzzify the fuzzy output set. In this paper, we consider selected defuzzification procedures in the area of scenario management.

Keywords: scenario management; defuzzification; fuzzy logic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A20 A22 A23 C60 M20 M21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2023
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