Revisiting the Battle of Midway: A counterfactual analysis

Anelí Bongers and Jose Torres ()

No 2017-01, Working Papers from Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center

Abstract: This paper uses a stochastic salvo combat model to study the Battle of Midway. The parameters of the model are calibrated accordingly to the historical outcome and thus, the model can be used to study alternative scenarios. Contrary to the common wisdom that the result of the Battle was an "incredible" American victory, the model shows that the probability for Japanese to win were very low and indeed close to zero. We carry on four alternative counterfactual analyses: (i) All launched American attack aircraft reach to the Japanese carriers; ii) An additional Japanese carrier; iii) Not to wait to launch Japanese attack aircraft; and iv) American carriers spotted earlier. Including the most favorable scenario for the Japanese, the Battle of Midway remains an American victory.

Keywords: Stochastic salvo combat model; Battle of Midway; Monte Carlo simulation; Counterfactual analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2017-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mal:wpaper:2017-1

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