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Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery

Michael Artis and Marianne Sensier ()

Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series from Economics, The University of Manchester

Abstract: This paper applies a business cycle dating algorithm to monthly North West county and local authority district claimant count data to assess turning points in the economic cycle of sub-regions. We date the transition of all districts of the North West into recession beginning in June 2007. By utilising manufacturing and service sector survey information in a logistic regression model we forecast the continuation of the recession for North West region’s employment cycle in the first quarter of 2010. A longer term forecast with the Land Registry’s house price index predicts a transition to an expansion phase in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2010
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