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Do Amnesty Policies Reduce Conflict? Evidence from the Niger-Delta Amnesty Program

Uzoma Iloanugo, Indranil Dutta and M. Emranul Haque

Economics Discussion Paper Series from Economics, The University of Manchester

Abstract: We examine the effect of the Niger-Delta Amnesty Program on oil related conflict in Nigeria. The policy enacted in August 2009 made concessions to rebel groups in the oil producing region in exchange for peace. Using a difference-in-difference strategy we compare conflict in Local Government Areas with and without oil fields in the Niger-Delta region. We find robust evidence that amnesty policy reduced the rebel and militia activities significantly. However, the reduction of conflict was not long lasting. We also find evidence of a peace dividend in terms of increase in economic activities — as measured through night time luminosity data — in Niger-Delta LGAs with oil fields after the policy. We explain our results through a simple analytical model.

JEL-codes: D74 H56 O13 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-11
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