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Severity of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India

Katsushi Imai (), Nidhi Kaicker and Raghav Gaiha

Economics Discussion Paper Series from Economics, The University of Manchester

Abstract: This is one of the first econometric analyses of severity of COVID-19 pandemic in India measured using two related but distinct measures of mortality up to 31 October 2020 based on the Cumulative Severity Ratio (CSR). The CSR measures the additional pressure on our fragile and ill-equipped healthcare system, while its first difference helps monitor the progression of fatalities. These measures are supplemented by a measure of infection cases. Another important contribution of this analysis is the use of rigorous econometric methodologies drawing upon random effects models and Tobit models for the weekly panel of 32 states/union territories. Although the rationales vary, they yield a large core of robust results. The specifications are rich and comprehensive despite heavy data constraints. The factors associated with the CSR and infection cases include income, gender, multi-morbidity, urbanisation, lockdown and unlock phases, weather including temperature and rainfall, and the retail price of wheat. Given the paucity of rigorous econometric analyses, our study yields policy insights of considerable significance.

JEL-codes: C23 I18 N35 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-isf
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Journal Article: Severity of the COVID‐19 pandemic in India (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Severity of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India (2021) Downloads
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