The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts

Peter Tillmann

No 200946, MAGKS Papers on Economics from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung)

Abstract: This note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.

Keywords: inflation forecast; NAIRU; Phillips curve; monetary policy; Federal Reserve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2009
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Journal Article: The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mar:magkse:200946

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