EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Strategic Forecasting on the FOMC

Peter Tillmann

No 201017, MAGKS Papers on Economics from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung)

Abstract: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve consists of voting- and non-voting members. Apart from deciding about interest rate policy, members individually formulate regular inflation forecasts. This paper uncovers systematic differences in individual inflation forecasts submitted by voting and non-voting members. Based on a data set with individual forecasts recently made available it is shown that non-voters systematically overpredict inflation relative to the consensus forecast if they favor tighter policy and underpredict inflation if the favor looser policy. These findings are consistent with non-voting member following strategic motives in forecasting, i.e. non-voting members use their forecast to influence policy deliberation.

Keywords: inflation forecast; forecast errors; monetary policy; monetary committee; Federal Reserve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cdm, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Forthcoming in

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups ... 17-2010_tillmann.pdf Second version, 2010 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Strategic forecasting on the FOMC (2011) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mar:magkse:201017

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MAGKS Papers on Economics from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bernd Hayo ().

 
Page updated 2024-07-17
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201017