Do FOMC Members Herd?

Jan-Christoph Rülke () and Peter Tillmann
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Jan-Christoph Rülke: WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management,WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management

No 201032, MAGKS Papers on Economics from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung)

Abstract: Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemplyoment and in ation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts. While growth and unemployment forecast do not show herding behavior, the in ation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding, i.e. FOMC members intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for nonvoting members than for voters.

Keywords: Central Federal Open Market Committee; monetary policy; forecasting; herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 9 pages
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups ... s/32-2010_ruelke.pdf First version, 2010 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Do FOMC members herd? (2011)
Working Paper: Do FOMC Members Herd? (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mar:magkse:201032

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