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Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region

Iman Cheratian (), Mohammad Reza Farzanegan () and Saleh Goltabar ()

MAGKS Papers on Economics from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung)

Abstract: We examine the effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in the MENA oil-exporting and oil-importing countries over the period 1991-2017. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the results show that in the short-run, the positive changes of oil prices only exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting countries. However, in the long-run, positive changes in oil prices have a significant increasing effect on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries in the MENA region. We also find that the negative changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Our findings are in line with predictions of the Dutch disease hypothesis.

Keywords: Oil price shocks; Unemployment rate; MENA region; NARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q43 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-ene and nep-mac
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