Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets

Christoph Buehren, Tim Meyer and Christian Pierdzioch
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Christoph Buehren: Clausthal University of Technology
Tim Meyer: Helmut Schmidt University

MAGKS Papers on Economics from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung)

Abstract: We experimentally analyzed whether (anti-)herding behavior of forecasters in sport-betting markets is influenced by the incentive structure of the market (winner-takes-all vs. equal payment of most accurate forecasts) and by personal traits of forecasters. We found evidence of anti-herding in forecasts of the German Bundesliga. Self-reported knowledge and, more surprisingly, winner-takes-all incentives reduced anti-herding. On average, forecasts were less accurate with stronger anti-herding. Winner-takes-all incentives and self-reported knowledge improved forecasts.

Keywords: (Anti-)Herding; Sports forecasting; Experiment; Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-spo
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mar:magkse:202038

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