Measuring the Effect of Negative Interest Rate on New Zealand Banks

Weshah Razzak

No 2008, Discussion Papers from School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand

Abstract: We derive an equilibrium lending and deposit rates from a constrained profit optimization model, and estimate them over the period from 1999 to 2020. Then, dynamic stochastic baseline projections of these equilibrium rates and bank profit, and their projections under a counterfactual scenario of a negative interest rate, were produced for the period 2020 to 2024. The model predicts that a negative Official Cash Rate (OCR) lowers the lending and deposit rates on average over the period Jun 2020 to Dec 2024; but the lending rate is higher than the deposit rate. It also increases the volatility of these rates relative to baseline projections. Negative OCR increases both incomes and costs; however, bank profit increases on average, by about 19 percent relative to baseline projections over the period Sep 2020 to Dec 2024. However, that increase of bank profit is associated with more uncertainty.

Keywords: Lending rate; deposit rate; bank profit; negative interest rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C51 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2020
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Journal Article: Measuring the effect of negative interest rate on New Zealand banks (2021)
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