A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators

Ekaterini Panopoulou

Economics Department Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth

Abstract: This paper attempts a resolution of the Fisher effect puzzle in terms of estimator choice. Using both short-term and long-term interest rates for 14 OECD countries, we find ample evidence supporting the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in which interest rates move oneto- one with inflation. Our results suggest that the reason why the Fisher effect has not found support internationally lies on the estimation method. When the hypothesis of a unit coefficient relating interest rates to expected inflation is tested within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) framework, which is invariant to the integration properties of the data, the Fisher effect easily survives the empirical evidence. Similar, but less robust, results are reached on the grounds of the Pre-Whitened Fully Modified Least Squares (PW-FMLS) or the Johansen’s (JOH) estimators.

Keywords: Cointegration Estimators,Fisher Effect,ADL; DOLS Small-sample properties (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 E40 E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2005-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Working Paper: A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators (2005)
Working Paper: A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:may:mayecw:n1500205

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