Long-Run Changes in Radiative Forcing and Surface Temperature: The Effect of Human Activity over the Last Five Centuries

Theologos Dergiades, Robert Kaufmann and Theodore Panagiotidis

Discussion Paper Series from Department of Economics, University of Macedonia

Abstract: We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change.

Keywords: Global climate change; radiative forcing; surface temperature. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 Q51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-11, Revised 2019-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://aphrodite.uom.gr/econwp/pdf/dp062019.pdf
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Can't connect to aphrodite.uom.gr:80 (A connection attempt failed because the connected party did not properly respond after a period of time, or established connection failed because connected host has failed to respond.)

Related works:
Journal Article: Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2019_06

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Paper Series from Department of Economics, University of Macedonia
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Theodore Panagiotidis () and Anastasia Litina ().