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Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory

Frank Denton, Christine Feaver and Byron Spencer

Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers from McMaster University

Abstract: Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.

Keywords: mortality; life expectancy; stochastic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C43 C53 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 58 pages
Date: 2001-06
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Working Paper: Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory (2001) Downloads
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