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Factors of Socio-economic Uncertainty in the Bosnian War

Gyöngyvér Demény ()

No 44, Research Working Papers from MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict

Abstract: It appears obvious that war, civil or otherwise, deeply damages confidence in the future. This paper examines socio-economic uncertainty and insecurity connected to violent conflicts on the basis of analysis of various reports and journal articles on the Bosnian war. The paper points to conditions of socio-economic uncertainty, and specifically socioeconomic insecurity, during the conflict cycle and to their relation with the dynamic of the conflict. It also addresses questions concerning the effect of conflict on individuals, families, households, and their relations with their closer or broader social environment. It argues that socio-economic insecurity and lack of means for daily survival were not mere consequences of violence, they were also tools used as parts of the strategy to weaken the opponent. Decisions made on fleeing and returning demonstrate the dynamics of trust, risk-taking and perception of possibilities, both at individual and at community level, and in turn show the insurmountable difficulties of coping with insecure situations under conditions of violent conflict and its aftermath.

Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2011
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http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP44_GD.pdf First version, 2011 (application/pdf)

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