Reference Forecasts for CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Production in Portugal

José Belbute and Alfredo Pereira

No 126, GEE Papers from Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia

Abstract: We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our "business as usual" projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.6 Mt by 2050. Our results suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining reduction on emissions of 31.2 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest that about 79% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that these reductions in emissions are also permanent.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; IPCC emission targets; long memory; ARFIMA; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 O52 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2019-08, Revised 2019-08
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://www.gee.gov.pt//RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_126.pdf First version, 2019 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mde:wpaper:00126

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