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Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation

Carlos Figueira ()
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Carlos Figueira: Nova School of Business and Economics

No 68, GEE Papers from Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia

Abstract: The current paper aims at analysing the long Portuguese output stagnation during the period 2001-2014. Using a VEC model, the effect of exports, investment, public external liabilities and the country’s risk premium on growth is analysed. Our study reveals that, in the long run, Portuguese GDP is determined by exports, the country’s risk-premium and capital formation while in the short-run, growth is negatively affected by the country’s risk premium and external public liabilities. Our findings also support the vulnerability of the Portuguese economy to external developments, in particular, we identified a negative effect of China’s higher trade integration and the relevance of world market conditions.

Keywords: Portuguese Economy; Economic Stagnation; Growth Determinants; VEC model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 H63 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
Date: 2017-03, Revised 2017-03
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http://www.gee.gov.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_68.pdf First version, 2017 (application/pdf)

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