Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence

Kyle Handley

No 634, Working Papers from Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan

Abstract: I provide novel evidence for the impact of trade policy uncertainty on exporters. In a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model, trade policy uncertainty will delay the entry of exporters into new markets and make them less responsive to applied tariff reductions. Policy instruments that reduce or eliminate uncertainty, such as binding trade policy commitments at the WTO, increase entry. The predictions are tested on disaggregated, product-level Australian imports with model-consistent measures of uncertainty. Reducing policy uncertainty generates more product entry than unilateral liberalization. The results illuminate and quantify an important new channel for trade creation.

Keywords: policy uncertainty; trade; World Trade Organization; bindings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D8 D9 E6 F1 F5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2012-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (61)

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http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers626-650/r634.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence (2014)
Working Paper: Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mie:wpaper:634

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