Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch

No 676, Working Papers from Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan

Abstract: We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify firms that eventually faced tariff increases. They accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For the average affected firm, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. We construct product-level measures of exporters' exposure to import tariff increases and estimate the impact on U.S. export growth. The most exposed products had relatively lower export growth in 2018-2019, with larger effects in 2019. The decline in export growth in 2019Q3, for example, is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of 2% for the typical product and up to 4% for products with higher than average exposure.

Keywords: Global supply chains; tari s; trade war; U.S. exports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F13 F14 F23 H2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2020-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (56)

Downloads: (external link)
https://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers676-700/r676.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism (2020)
Working Paper: Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism (2020)
Working Paper: Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mie:wpaper:676

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by FSPP Webmaster ().