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A cohort approach to project the labour participation rate in Malta

Abigail Marie Rapa ()

No PP/04/2019, CBM Policy Papers from Central Bank of Malta

Abstract: Since Malta’s accession to the European Union, its labour market has undergone substantial shifts which have resulted in an increase in activity among the working age population. Using a cohort model of labour force participation this note assesses developments in the participation rate of males and females since 2000 and forecasts the overall participation rate for the medium term while taking gender and age-period-cohort factors into account. Using a dynamic cohort approach and under the assumption of no further policy change, the author estimates that the participation rate of those aged between 15 and 64 will continue to increase, reaching 80.4% in 2030. The continuous influx of foreign migrant workers and enacted pension reforms are estimated to boost the participation rate by 4.1 percentage points by 2030, which is equivalent to half of the projected increase in the participation rate.

JEL-codes: F22 J11 J21 J26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pgs
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