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Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads

Nektarios Aslanidis () and Andrea Cipollini ()

No 115, Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 from Money Macro and Finance Research Group

Abstract: The focus of this paper is on the leading indicator properties of high-yield corporate spreads regarding the level of real economic activity. This is motivated by both the financial accelerator mechanism underlying business cycle fluctuations as suggested by Bernanke and Gertler (1989). We examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of the high-yield spreads regarding employment and industrial production in the US, using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sub sectors high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that there is a substantial gain from using a Dynamic Factor fitted to credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR and ARDL models, where the exogenous regressor is either the term spread, or the aggregate high-yield spread.

Keywords: credit spreads; dynamic factor; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-02-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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