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Pursuing the Philips curve in an African monarchy: A Swazi case study

Andrew Phiri ()

No 1832, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine whether we can identify a Philips curve fit for the Kingdom of Swaziland as a low middle income Sub-Saharan Africa monarchy using data collected between 1991 and 2016. In our approach we rely on the recently introduced nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) model to a variety of Phillips curve specifications. For robustness sake, we further employ three filters (one-sided HP, two-sided HP and Corbae-Oularis filters) to extract the gap variables necessary for empirical analysis. Our findings point to a linear, short-run traditional Philips curve whereas we find strong support for concave shaped unemployment-gap and output –gap based Phillips curve specifications. Given the specific form of concavity discovered in the Phillips curves, the low inflation rate experienced over the last couple of decades can be attributed to a worsening labour and goods markets. Moreover, our evidence also cautions Swazi policymakers of ‘overheating’ of the economy during economic booms in which stabilization tools are required to implemented in such instances. Given the overall absence of empirical studies establishing the Philips curve for the Swazi economy our study makes a valid contribution to the literature.

Keywords: Inflation; Unemployment; Phillips curve; Central Bank of Swaziland (CBS); Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter; Corbae-Oularis (C-O) filter; Emerging Economies. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C52 E24 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2018-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-lab and nep-mac
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