Business Cycle Properties of Job Polarization Using Consistent Occupational Data

Myungkyu Shim and Hee-Seung Yang ()

No 17-14, Monash Economics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Economics

Abstract: A significant obstacle to studying business cycle properties of job polarization has been the presence of inconsistencies in aggregate employment data for different occupation groups. In order to overcome this problem, we construct aggregate hours series using the method of 'conversion factors', which was originally developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After showing that our data outperform previously available data in terms of consistency, we analyze two business cycle properties of job polarization that have not yet been studied before: (1) the changes in volatility of employment of each occupation group since the mid-1980s and (2) the asymmetric effects of recessions on employment of different occupation groups. We find that employment volatility of middle-skill occupations has decreased by 40% since the mid-1980s due to jobless recoveries observed in the last three recessions.

Keywords: Business cycle; Job polarization; Consistency; Occupation; Conversion factor (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C82 E24 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2014-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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