Productivity Growth and Interest Rate Trends: A Long-Run Analysis

Dmitriy Stolyarov

Working Papers from University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center

Abstract: This paper develops a new measure of after-tax rate of return on aggregate wealth and uses it in estimating the structural relationship between the long-run interest rate and productivity growth rate. The structural approach allows use of parameter estimates in constructing projections for the interest rate on U.S. Treasury securities. Results indicate that the long-run interest rate rises slightly more than one for one with productivity growth rate. The projected real interest rate on 10-year US government bonds is in the 1.5-2.0 percent range under intermediate assumptions on future productivity growth and trends in the world interest rate.

Pages: 66 pages
Date: 2016-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/Papers/pdf/wp357.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 403 Forbidden (http://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/Papers/pdf/wp357.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/Papers/pdf/wp357.pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mrr:papers:wp357

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center P.O. Box 1248, Ann Arbor, MI 48104. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MRRC Administrator ().