La modélisation multivariée des contributions: Une tentative d'explication des derniers retournements de la conjoncture

Bertrand Candelon and Jean-François Jacques
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Bertrand Candelon: MAD - Université Paris 1 et Université d'Evry-Val-d'Essonne
Jean-François Jacques: MAD - Université Paris 1 et CEPREMAP

Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques from Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1)

Abstract: This paper investigates the sources of disturbances that caused the conjonctural breakdowns in the early 90's, in France, in the United States, in the United Kingdom and in Germany, through a V.E.C.M. on contributions to growth. The historical decomposition highlights the crucial role played by consumption, stocks and investment shocks. However, one notes the major role of exportations shocks in France and in Germany or the importance of consumption's disturbance in the United States and in the United Kingdom

Keywords: Last recession; Business cycles; VECM methodology; history decomposition of variance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 1996-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mse:wpsorb:96003

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